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To reduce the chances of policy failures, policy makers need information about the effects of policies. Sometimes, policy makers can rely on agents who already possess the information. Often, the information does not exist yet. This raises two questions. First, how much resources should be devoted t
In a multiperiod setting, decision-makers can learn about the consequences of their decisions through experimentation. In this paper we examine how in a two-party system polarization and political instability affect learning through experimentation. We distinguish two cases: the decision to be mad
In this comment, it is argued that a balanced-budget rule may cause underinvestment. As a consequence, such a rule is not ex ante efficient: in order to achieve the ex ante optimal outcome, it would be necessary to add an extra rule for the level of public investment. Unfortunately, however, such an
Uncertainty about the future preferences of the government may induce policy makers to run excessive budget deficits. As a solution to this problem, economists have proposed to impose a binding debt rule. In this paper we argue that a binding debt rule does not eliminate the distortions due to strat
After decades of government growth, Western countries have witnessed major policy reversals. Prominent examples include the far-reaching policy reversals implemented by Thatcher, Reagan, and Douglas. This paper offers an explanation for these policy reversals. Our key argument rests on the assumptio
Resistance to socially desired reforms may arise from uncertainty about the consequences of reforms at the individual level (Fernandez and Rodrik, 1991). Without a binding commitment, a promise to compensate losers will not raise support for reforms due to a credibility problem. This paper shows tha
In this paper we consider a model where a policy maker uses advice in order to (1) obtain information about the consequences of an innovation (information motive) and (2) to support political legitimacy of her decision (persuasion motive). We conduct our analysis in the context of a cheap-talk game
In this paper we discuss a recent paper by Stephen E Haynes in which he relates electoral cycles in political support to electoral cycles in economic variables Haynes finds that the cycle in support for Republican presidents is explained by the cycle in economic variables, whereas the cycle in suppo
This paper presents the results of an empirical study of the relationship between macroeconomic performance and policy makers' preferences for real output growth and inflation based on quarterly data from 16 countries. The empirical results indicate that a lower priority to inflation and a higher re
The political interpretation behind the Barro-Gordon model hinges on two assumptions: Inflation and output growth have distributional effects, and policymakers' distributional desires can be represented by a quadratic loss function in terms of output and inflation. In this article we have examined t
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