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We analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly SKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the moment that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKUlevel forecasts for a va
This study examines the impact of daily atmospheric weather conditions on daily television use in the Netherlands for the period 1996-2005. The effects of the weather parameters are considered in the context of mood and mood management theory. It is proposed that inclement and uncomfortable weather
It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current revisions on one-period lagged revisions. Under weak-form efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The empirical findings in the literature
Experts (managers) may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve short-run and long-run forecasts of SKU-level sales data. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have
Consumers often have to make decisions involving computations with interest rates. It is well known from the literature that computations with percentages and thus with interest rates amount to a difficult task. We survey a large group of consumers, and we find that questions on interest rates are a
Consumers have substantial debts. Examples concern mortgages but also debts for products such as clothing and books. Facing difficulties when dealing with interest rates and percentages computations is one of the reasons for those debts. Campaigns like “Borrowing money costs money” should make consu
Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert’s touch, is n
De recessie van 2009 zit nog in de benen, maar de experts stellen dat we pas in 2013 weer een nieuwe recessie mogen verwachten, en aldus wordt 2011 een rustig jaar.
We examine the situation where hourly data are available to design advertising-response models, whereas managerial decision making can concern hourly, daily or weekly intervals. The key question is how models for hourly data compare to models based on weekly data with respect to forecasting accurac
In this paper we consider the estimation of probabilistic ranking models in the context of conjoint experiments. By using approximate rather than exact ranking probabilities, we do not need to compute high-dimensional integrals. We extend the approximation technique proposed by \\citet{Henery1981} i
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