This PhD-research is aimed at developing and applying an integrated and internationally-oriented approach to quantify the risk of contagious animal disease introduction at regional level in the European Union. For this purpose classical swine fever (CSF) is used as case study. Materials and methods
Risk is defined as the likelihood and magnitude of the occurrence of an adverse event. Quantitative risk analysis is used to estimate the likelihood of CSF virus introduction. The outcome will be combined with outcome from disease spread and economic models to quantify the overall risk of CSF virus introduction. The risk analysis described above will be used to explore opportunities for reducing the risk of CSF virus introduction at regional level in the EU. The costs to implement preventive actions and the reduction in risk achieved by these preventive actions together are the basis for a cost-effectiveness study on measures to prevent virus introduction. The approach will be worked out as a tool for continuous risk assessment and economic analysis, which can help policy makers to make economically sound decisions on contagious animal disease prevention. |
