The management of complex water systems such as the North Sea, the Wadden Sea and many large estuaries and coastal seas all over the world requires an assessment of the large scale water circulations and pollutant transports in order to arrive at an integrated analysis of dissolved and particulate substances, water quality and aquatic ecology. Integral numerical models comprise tools to support this management. The present research project aimed at realising an operational, tested, validated and published three-dimensional eco-hydrodynamic model. To this end, a model application to the southern section of the North Sea was targeted. This R&D project is a follow-up to the results of the 2002- 2003 R&D project ' 3D-modelling of TSM, water quality and primary production '. The main activities involved the improvement of the real-time hydrodynamic forcing and the further elaboration of validation tools.
The project provided a clear insight into the factors determining the validity of the real-time hydrodynamic forcing. In part, the results confirmed experience from model applications elsewhere, in addition to new insights being gained. Even if it was already known that the model spatial resolution and the model bathymetry are important factors, the relevance of these factors for the correct representation of the Rhine and Meuse river plume had not been appreciated previously
The improvements realised in 2004 have been significant, however further research is still necessary. Clear recommendations to achieve this have been formulated. The validation of the three-dimensional eco-hydrodynamic model was further prepared by applying supportive techniques identified in 2003 to the North Sea model. These techniques allow a rapid, objective and reproducible quantification of the ' goodness of fit ' of the model. Apart from the validation itself, these techniques also support a rapid comparison of different simulations, as well as an easier transfer of expert knowledge between team members or between team and client. |
