| Local weather extremes, like extreme low or high temperatures, extreme precipitation events, droughts, are not just caused by local conditions; a dominant influence is exerted by the large scale atmospheric flow. In this project we develop a statistical method to describe this influence in an optimal way. Observed meteorological timeseries are analysed. Results from climate model integrations are validated against the observations. This technique can be applied to future scenario simulations to better evaluate possible changes in the probability of local extremes in a future climate. |
