| The objectives of this project are to review the long-term care (LTC) systems in EU member states, to assess the actual and future numbers of elderly care-dependent people in selected countries and to develop a methodology for comprehensive analysis of actual and future LTC needs and provisions across European countries. Four countries have been selected for forecasts of long term care: Spain, Poland, Germany and Sweden or the Netherlands. These are representative of the European epidemiology and long term care provision. We use the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP2008 scenario's as basis for disability projections, according to two extreme scenario's based on opposite theories of ageing and one middle scenario, based on micro simulating aging schedules observed in the American Health And Retirement Study. We then model the effect of smoking and BMI, by assuming incidence to and recovery from ADL disability, conditional on smoking and BMI. We use the Dutch Rotterdam Study to estimate the risks of incidence, recovery and mortality, conditional on smoking or BMI. We are making illustrative projections of long-term care needs for these four countries and the Netherlands, dependent on the Europop2008 scenario's. Policy scenarios model the effects on old age disability of secular and policy interventions for smoking and obesity. |
