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Impact of deforestation in Amazonia

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Titel Impact of deforestation in Amazonia
Looptijd 01 / 2009 - 12 / 2010
Status Afgesloten
Onderzoeknummer OND1336843

Samenvatting

Doel
Het doel van dit project is om, als aanvulling op een WOTRO Integrated Programme, de coördinator en begeleiders van de PhD-projecten in staat te stellen te helpen bij de synthese en disseminatie.
Het doel van het IP is om te de minst schadelijke patronen van ontbossing en behoud in kaart te brengen voor het Amazonegebied, gegeven de landgebruiks- en klimaat druk. Dus, optimaliseren van ecosysteem services en de kwetsbaarheid/veerkracht van het beboste landschap in kaart brengen. Zie verder Engelse samenvatting.

Werkwijze
Het gehele IP wordt uitgevoerd in vijf samenwerkende PhD- en postdoc-projecten:

1. de veerkracht van natte rivierdalletjes in het golvende plteau-vallei systeem van de Terra Firme, onder verdrogend klimaat.
2. Het effect van fragmentatie in ontbossing op de watercyclus
3. mechanismen in ontbossing en feedback vanuit klimaatverandering daarop
4. opschaling en integratie naar het gehele Braziliaanse Amazonegebied
5. idem als 4

In het KB-gefinancirde project zal vooral de synergie worden bevorderd, door het opstallen van conceptuele modellen voor de veerkracht van het gehele systeem, inclusief mensen en ecosysteem services.
Zie verder Engelse tekst.

Resultaten
Het IP is al een aantal jaren bezig. In het ook springende resultaten zijn:

- natte valleibodems verliezen heel snel hun organisch materiaal, als de grondwaterstand wordt verlaagd.
- efragmenteerd bosgebied, waar veel secundaire hergoei is, lijkt meer water te verdampen dan ongestoo0rd bos, hetgeen tegen gevestigde theorie ingaat
- na inieele ontbossing lijken er meerdere vervolgtrajecten te kunnen zijn: ofwel het land wordt weer in de steek gelaten nadat de grond is uitgeput, ofwel het bedrijf wort overgenomen door grotere boeren, waarna intensivering, verdere ontbossing en schaalvergroting volgt.
- wij hebben als eerste de rol van soja en suikerriet verbouw in toekomst-scenario's voor ontbossing in de Amazone verwerkt.

Publicaties bij dit project zijn beschikbaar via deze Link

Samenvatting (EN)

Description:
The Amazon is under great pressure of land-use change and climate change.
The project is a WOTRO-Integrated Programme. We ask ourselves the question as to which are the least harmful patterns of conservation and deforestation in the Amazon (optimize use of ecosystem and landscape services), given land-use and climate pressures (assess the resilience/vulnerability of the forests and forested landscape mosaic).

Research objectives:
The objective of the balancing funding requested from KB1 is to enable the coordinator and supervisors of the WOTRO-IP (Integrated Programme) to (help) synthesise, publish and disseminate the integrated results of the WOTRO IP, which in itself is a cluster of PhD and postdoc projects.
The ultimate aim of the IP itself is to help planning least harmful patterns of conservation and deforestation in the Amazon (optimize use of ecosystem and landscape services), given land-use and climate pressures (assess the resilience/vulnerability of the forests and forested landscape mosaic).
This is being achieved through executing five sub-projects, looking a local-scale resilience of wet forests and carbon exchange (VUA responsible, a drainage experiment), landscape-scale effects of fragmented deforestation on the water cycle and climate (Alterra, multi-scale catchment study), landscape-scale effects of climate on land use change (DOW-CL, regional CLUES modelling) and regional, participative, multi-stakeholder scenario building (ALterra and DOW-CL, CLUES and fuzzy maps study).
The focus is on the functioning of the ecosystems as a whole, but these ecosystems are diverse (internally) and different (among each other). We consider undisturbed, well drained forest; swampy, nutrient-poor valley forest; stumped, extremely leached (Campina) forest; secondary forest and fragmented deforested landscapes. This represents high biodiversity, and it is the resilience in this biodiversity that we implicitly test.
Thus, repeating, the IP aims to investigate a number of examples of resilience/vulnerability in the face of climate change, at various scales, of essential services of the Amazon landscape (maintaining carbon cycle, maintaining water cycle, providing livelihood at small and large scale).

Results and products:

- The research and innovations described below are already well on track (the IP started in 2005 and is due to finish early 2010). With KB1 (and KB2) support, we will be able to much better bring together the results of the three PhD projects and two postdoc projects, that are, as it is now, focusing on different scales and disciplines. The Postdoc projects already integrate part of the research, but the coordinator and supervisors of the project lack time in the present situation to really make the integration step.
- There is high diversity in forest types, even at small scale, in the Amazon. The undulating Central Amazon landscape, for example, presents important differences between well-drained plateau forest and nutrient-poor, wet valleys. The extreme of this nutrient-poor forest is Campina, or heath forest. On top of that, deforestation creates even higher diversity, with fragmented pastures and secondary growth. This diversity is so-far hardly accounted for in climate models, in other words, predictions of Amazon dieback following climate change are poorly based, and the value, or service of this heterogeneity is not well know. We will account for this natural and man-made heterogeneity of Amazon landscapes in the hitherto very general regional climate models for the Amazon. Thus the value of diversity as a service in the regional hydrology and climate will be evaluated. Methods are studying effects of local-scale manipulations of the water table in undisturbed forest , and landscape-scale catchment studies in mosaics of pasture and forests. So far, we have found clear effects of changing water tables on carbon budgets, as well as unexpectedly high evaporation from secondary forests (enhancing the water cycle).
- The effects of deforestation on the regional hydrological cycle and biodiversity has been studied rather extensively in the past, but there is no insight as yet into the sensitivity of human actions (deforestation, agriculture, abandonment) to climate. We will elucidate local human and agricultural responses to climate change in the Amazon. In other words, we will study this as feed-back and hence the potential of this feed-back to enhance resilience of the Amazon system as a whole. Methods include using the CLUES model and field calibration studies in the state of Rondonia. So far, results show that this feed-back may be very weak, i.e. people do not care about and do not respond to climate change. There are, however other internal feed-backs that may limit deforestation.

Studies on the patterns of deforestation and its consequences are usually done as singe cause-effect studies, using only one future scenario. We will develop a range of iterative scenarios for future development of the region that can be used for planning. Iterative in this case means that we will actively interact with stakeholder groups, that will be presented with results of the various elements in the IP, as well as with land-use change projections, after which these stakeholders provide their feed-back in the form of fuzzy cognitive mapping. These feed-backs, that can of many kind, will then be iterated back into the range of scenarios. This will provide a kind of tool to policy makers in the region (and in the EU) that can assist in exploring ranges of possible policies rather than only one ( doom -) scenario.

Betrokken organisaties

Betrokken personen

Projectleider Dr. B. Kruijt

Bovenliggende onderzoeksactiviteit(en)

Classificatie

A14000 Natuur en landschap
A24000 Bosbouw
C20000 Ontwikkelingsstudies
D15500 Atmosfeer wetenschappen

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