| The basic question we would like to address is: to what extent are local feedbacks related to ice and snow and the exchange processes in the stable boundary layer involved in recent and future major warming of the Arctic? Observations suggest that the current Arctic warming is part of a global warming signal. Climate models generally exhibit the same basic signal (Arctic amplification), but the inter-model spread in magnitude, and temporal and spatial patterns is very large. This uncertainty is generally attributed to (a) differing and simplified snow/ice physics and atmospheric turbulent mixing in the various models, (b) to their inaccurate control climate in terms of the important processes and forcings, (c) to low frequency (e.g. decadal) climate variability, and (d) to atmospheric and oceanic transports and cloud physics. Here we propose to improve our understanding of specifically the Arctic climate response and the role of local feedback processes therein by using a validated (using satellite, surface and boundary-layer observations) state-of-the-art coupled climate model (EC-Earth), which incorporates the relevant physics/dynamics (e.g. snow melt and seasonal transitions, sea-ice dynamics and insulation capacity, stable boundary layer exchange processes). We anticipate that such a dedicated approach will significantly reduce the uncertainties involved in Arctic climate change projections. |
