Towards a regret-based paradigm for the ex-ante evaluation of transport policies
12 / 2012 - 12 / 2017
The proposed research transforms a regret-based mobility choice-modelling approach, which has been recently developed by the applicant, into a paradigm for the ex-ante evaluation of transport policies. This paradigm will provide a theoretical framework to help answer questions such as: should a particular rail-connection be built or not? Should road pricing be introduced or not? The mentioned regret-based mobility choice-modelling approach has been developed by the applicant in the context of a VENI-project. It presents a counterpart of the Nobel prize-winning utility-based approach that has dominated the field of transportation for decades. The regret-based approach has already attracted considerable attention among leading transportation researchers. Its parsimonious and tractable nature makes it uniquely positioned to transform into a viable paradigm for the ex-ante evaluation of transport policies. The proposed research takes this step by performing two projects: Project ?National Model? develops and applies a regret-based counterpart of the Dutch National Model. The National Model is an internationally renowned utility-based model system for nationwide forecasting of aggregate mobility patterns. The creation of a regret-based National Model would be unique worldwide. In addition, an in-depth empirical comparison is provided between predictions made by the regret- and utility-based National Model. This would be the first time ever that the two paradigms are being compared at the level of aggregate mobility patterns. Project ?Economic Appraisal? develops and applies a regret-based theory for economic appraisal, which supports rigorous measures of willingness-to-pay and user benefits. Such a theory for economic appraisal already exists within the utility-based paradigm, and is a prerequisite for the translation of the impact of transport policies into monetary terms. The developed regret-based theory of economic appraisal will be used, in combination with the regret-based National Model, to provide rigorous ex-ante evaluations of selected transport policy initiatives. In-depth comparisons are made with utility-based evaluations.